Energy shock reshapes corporate outlook worldwide
Global business insolvencies are set to climb for another year, driven by lingering pandemic-era debts, mounting trade tensions, and a widening conflict in the Middle East that has choked one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, according to a new report by Dutch credit insurance firm Atradius.
The company’s April 2026 Insolvency Outlook, released Wednesday, projects a 3% rise in worldwide insolvencies this year – a figure that represents a six-percentage-point upward revision from the firm’s October 2025 forecast, when an earlier normalization had been anticipated.
“Our insolvency forecast has deteriorated due to the persistence of adverse economic conditions, including COVID-related tax debts, rising input costs, and ongoing trade tensions,” said Theo Smid, senior economist at Atradius. “The crisis in the Middle East, together with the associated increase in energy prices, adds to existing pressures. The impact on businesses will depend largely on the length of the conflict.”
Middle East crisis compounds existing strain
A large-scale military campaign launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on Feb. 28 has since prompted Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and seaborne gas flows. Oil prices have risen 55% since the start of the crisis, while European gas prices have surged 73%.
Atradius’ baseline scenario assumes the strait will remain effectively closed until the end of April before gradually reopening, with limited damage to Gulf infrastructure. Should disruptions persist beyond that window, the firm cautioned that insolvency projections would need to be revised upward.
North America divided
The outlook diverges sharply across North America. In the United States, insolvencies are forecast to rise 8% in 2026, with high trade tariffs and elevated policy uncertainty keeping the operating environment difficult for companies. Early 2026 data confirmed a continuation of the high levels recorded at the close of last year.
Canada, by contrast, is expected to see a 14% decline in insolvencies this year, as filings continue to normalize following a historically high surge in 2024 triggered by the expiry of pandemic-era government loan programs.
Europe a mixed picture
Europe offers no single story. Switzerland faces the steepest projected increase at 17%, with insolvency levels forecast to reach double their pre-pandemic norm – a trend partly attributed to bankruptcy legislation that compels public institutions to initiate proceedings against indebted companies. Italy and Portugal are also set for increases of 7% and 4%, respectively.
On the other end, Ireland is expected to post a 17% decline, with Denmark and Norway each projected to fall 6%.
Asia-Pacific leads the way down
The Asia-Pacific region stands out as the only area expected to show a convincing decline in 2026, according to the report. New Zealand leads with a projected 17% drop, followed by Hong Kong at 10%. Australia, Japan, and South Korea are expected to normalize more slowly, with most of the downward adjustment occurring in 2027.
Relief expected in 2027
Looking further ahead, Atradius projects a 6% global decline in insolvencies in 2027, as inflation eases, energy markets stabilize, and central banks regain capacity to lower interest rates. The firm expects insolvency levels in many markets to return close to pre-pandemic norms by year’s end – provided the Middle East conflict does not escalate beyond current projections.
