Global X’s Brooke Thackray argues Canadian assets are emerging as a practical alternative, as gold consolidates and supply‑chain risks go unpriced
The Iran-US war has shaken global markets, but for Canada, the Iran-US conflict tilts in country’s favour, according to Global X’s Brooke Thackray.
“The Iranian war is actually benefiting Canada," Thackray said, research analyst at Global X, noting the country holds a large energy complex, and while the country cannot ramp up production on demand – there is no strategic reserve, and companies have no spare capacity sitting on the sidelines – higher commodity prices still flow through to the bottom line.
"We can benefit from a higher price, and that's really what it's going to come down to is just driving the prices up, which Canada will be a beneficiary of," he noted.
The advantage goes beyond oil. Thackray argues Canada is also a beneficiary of the broader institutional shift away from US assets. Before the war started, Europe was outperforming the US, driven in part by the Sell America trade. Portfolio managers around the world were pulling back from the US amid uncertainty over tariffs and the country's direction. Technology stocks, which had been the main reason foreign capital flowed into American markets, have underperformed the S&P 500 since last October.
The war has made that dynamic worse for Europe and Asia, particularly as both regions are exposed to energy supply disruptions in ways that North America isn't. Canada, as a net exporter of oil, sits on the other side of the equation. Because Canada is a net oil exporter, it doesn’t face the same kind of direct pressure from rising energy costs, noted Thackray, adding that makes it look comparatively resilient.
He argues this relative resilience matters for foreign investors deciding where to put money. Canada can screen well as a more neutral market with energy exposure, a stronger value tilt, and a banking sector that remains attractive from abroad. Even with domestic economic weakness, those features may make Canadian assets look like a practical alternative when institutions want to reduce US risk but still stay invested.
That, in turn, has also turned Canadian equities into a more attractive destination for global capital. Thackray points to the Canadian stock market's strong run over the past year and says foreign institutional investors are beginning to view the country differently – as a neutral jurisdiction with energy exposure, a banking oligopoly that has performed well, and cheaper valuations than the US.
"It's more of a neutral country. We get the energy exposure, and we got a good banking system, that's an oligopoly," he said, adding the logic extends to the currency too. The Canadian dollar has held up even during periods of US dollar strength driven by safe-haven flows. Foreign investors see it as a petrodollar currency, which gives it a different profile than most developed-market peers.
To that end, he believes gold no longer moves in a simple, linear way with any single macro variable. Historically, investors could point to inflation or real interest rates as the dominant driver, but that framework broke down in 2022, when real yields and gold both rose. But he believes that marked the start of a structural “re‑rating” of gold’s role in the system.
He ties the latest leg of the move primarily to sustained central bank demand, especially from Eastern economies, with China buying steadily for well over a year. That official-sector buying has coincided with growing “safe haven” demand from the same region. By contrast, he thinks North American investors have largely sat it out: despite record spot prices and headlines, gold remains a small slice of institutional portfolios, with major vehicles still holding fewer ounces than at the 2020 peak.
He attributes that gap to the long tech boom, which pulled capital and attention away from gold. In his framing, this period rhymes with the late 1990s: a powerful technology run, followed by a major reset.
“That's why it's called the commodity super cycle. What’s moved gold? Over the last while central bank buying and more interest happening in the eastern central banks. We're probably in some sort of consolidation phase, and that's what we've seen traditionally in gold going back over time. We've seen gold rally, go through a consolidation phase for a while and then rally again. Of course there are some exceptions, but, we're probably in that consolidation phase for a bit, unless we see the catalyst move it higher or lower.”
During this pause, Thackray suggests traditional metrics such as the US dollar and inflation expectations are also exerting somewhat more influence again, even though recent years have shown that those relationships can flip. Even if the immediate Middle East tensions ease, he expects heavy government spending and rising debt loads to continue, and he sees that long-term debasement of fiat currencies as a core, enduring driver of demand for gold.
Still, Thackray warns that markets are too relaxed about the medium‑term fallout from the Iran‑US war, especially around energy and supply chains.
He thinks investors are taking too much comfort from political messaging that the conflict is contained and likely to end soon. In his view, the real danger is a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If that disruption lasted a month or two, he expects serious second‑ and third‑order effects that are not priced in.
He draws a parallel with COVID, highlighting once factories shut, companies suddenly discovered critical components came from specific regions and couldn’t easily be replaced. Even after lockdowns ended, industries like autos were still scrambling for chips.
He believes something similar could play out now, but through multiple channels. Reduced flows of liquid natural gas would tighten global energy markets. A large share of exportable fertilizer ships through the strait, which would spill into higher food costs. On top of that, a big portion of the world’s helium – especially the ultra‑high‑grade helium needed for semiconductor production – comes from facilities in Qatar and the US. If shipments are interrupted for long enough, chipmakers in places like South Korea could face shortages once existing inventories run down.
“I just think that those risks are being underappreciated, I think we're just discovering them. Just like what happened in Covid when we all suddenly discovered that most generic pharmaceuticals were made in China. I think we're all of a sudden realizing so more national security risks here as well,” said Thackray.
